Possible scenario
Stimulus Lifts Imports
20% Chance
China's leadership may treat the record surplus as a symptom of weak domestic demand and a diplomatic liability. A stronger consumption, housing or local-government support package would raise imports and reduce the pressure for trading partners to retaliate.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.