Possible scenario
Managed Negotiations
27% Chance
The surplus increases diplomatic urgency but does not immediately produce a full trade rupture. Beijing, Washington and Brussels may prefer a managed process because firms have already adjusted to prior tariffs and policymakers want to avoid a supply-chain inflation shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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