Possible scenario
Localized Gaza Escalation
25% Chance
The strike becomes a trigger for several days of heavier Israeli activity inside Gaza, with Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad attempting limited retaliation. The ceasefire is weakened but not necessarily abandoned by the main external guarantors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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