Possible scenario
Sanctions Alignment Entrenches
42% Chance
The referendum result gives the Federal Council and parliament a clear mandate to keep Russia sanctions aligned with the EU and G7. Switzerland continues asset freezes, export controls, and compliance coordination while emphasizing that sanctions remain compatible with Swiss neutrality.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Tickers
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.