Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
The negotiations collapse or are publicly downgraded, reviving the dispute over Russian oil and market access. This is a meaningful downside risk because recent leader-level diplomacy already failed to break the impasse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
- Business Services -0.5%
- Energy +0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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