Possible scenario
Limited Pact Signed
45% Chance
India and the US finalize a pragmatic first-stage trade pact that lowers selected tariffs and parks the most contentious issues. This is the most likely path because both Narendra Modi and Donald Trump have incentives to show progress after months of public impasse.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.7%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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