Possible scenario
Early Election Path
20% Chance
Bas's resignation becomes the trigger for a broader SPD withdrawal debate, especially after recent AfD wins and CDU losses in state elections. If the SPD leaves the cabinet or refuses confidence, Merz could be pushed toward a snap federal election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Industrials -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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