Possible scenario
Exchange Confidence Falls
20% Chance
The hack triggers a broader reassessment of exchange custody risk, especially after the earlier Bybit breach in 2025. Traders rotate assets away from perceived weaker venues, raising pressure for real-time proof-of-reserves, cold-wallet attestations, and third-party security audits.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- PANW+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.