Possible scenario
Managed Containment
18% Chance
Beijing may prefer to contain the matter as a discipline case rather than revive broader Chongqing factional politics. This outcome would minimize market impact and keep the focus on individual accountability.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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