Possible scenario
Spanish Political Crisis
20% Chance
The unrest becomes a direct test of Pedro Sánchez's minority government and its Catalan parliamentary dependencies. Housing policy, policing powers and regional autonomy become bargaining chips as opposition parties accuse Madrid of losing control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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