Possible scenario
European Contagion
27% Chance
The unrest spreads further through southern and western Europe, linking housing costs, inflation and anti-police anger. Governments coordinate security responses, but the underlying cost-of-living grievances keep demonstrations active in multiple cities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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