Possible scenario
Yield Surge Extends
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a continuation of the Treasury selloff as investors demand higher term premium after repeated yield spikes. Equity losses deepen, with rate-sensitive sectors underperforming and credit risk beginning to reprice.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Fed policy rate Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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