Possible scenario
Policy Backstop Calms
25% Chance
Treasury and Federal Reserve officials may try to stabilize market functioning after the latest move, especially given the earlier $6 billion debt purchase. A credible liquidity signal would lower yields modestly and trigger a relief rally in beaten-down equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Fed policy rate Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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