Possible scenario
Fragmented National Bans
20% Chance
If EU unanimity proves difficult, frontline states are likely to expand national restrictions under public-order and security grounds. This preserves the existing east-west split inside the EU while still reducing Russian access to key border states.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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