Possible scenario
EU-Wide Ban Adopted
38% Chance
The most likely path is a Council-level agreement that converts current national restrictions into a common Schengen approach. The policy would focus on short-stay tourist and business visas while retaining humanitarian, dissident, family, and diplomatic exemptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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