Possible scenario
Smith Vindicated Procedurally
22% Chance
A review by Senate staff, DOJ officials, or outside legal commentators may conclude that Smith’s testimony did not meet the legal threshold for perjury. This would reduce the dispute to a credibility and messaging fight over the Trump investigations.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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