Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Escalates
30% Chance
Republicans may continue pressing the issue despite the weakness in the basketball-team texts, using it as part of a broader critique of Trump-era prosecutions. The escalation would likely center on document requests, staff interviews, and public hearings rather than immediate legal consequences.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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