Possible scenario
Paxton Gains Traction
30% Chance
Ken Paxton and Republican allies successfully turn the race toward crime, public safety, and national Democratic messaging on policing. The attack is plausible enough to force Talarico onto defense during a critical October stretch.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.