Possible scenario
Damage Mostly Contained
40% Chance
James Talarico responds quickly by saying past comments were about police accountability after Uvalde-era failures, not eliminating police budgets. The issue trims enthusiasm among some swing voters but does not fundamentally change a race that already looked very close against Ken Paxton.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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