Republicans Neutralize Spending

24% Chance

Republicans and conservative outside groups are likely to respond quickly now that party spending limits have been lifted. If GOP committees and super PACs match or exceed Sanders' spending, the electoral effect becomes muted even if campaign advertising volumes rise.

Initial impacts

Market volatility Up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
10-year Treasury yield Up

Secondary impacts

Finance +0.1%
Energy +0.1%
Consumer Services +0.1%

Portfolio impact

S&P 500+0.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Republicans Neutralize Spending

Initial impacts

Secondary impacts

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Portfolio