Possible scenario
Direct Offshore Hit
15% Chance
The hurricane takes a less favorable path over producing areas or intensifies before landfall, causing localized offshore equipment damage. The market treats the event as a meaningful but still regional energy-supply disruption rather than a broad macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Tickers
- SHEL-1.4%
- CVX-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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