Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
18% Chance
Moscow could respond with heavier strikes on Ukrainian energy, rail, or drone-production infrastructure. This would not by itself mark a new phase of the war, but it would briefly raise geopolitical risk premiums and defense-sector interest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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