Possible scenario
Targeted Regulatory Probe
36% Chance
The most likely outcome is a focused review by U.S. health agencies rather than a market-wide healthcare shock. FDA, NIH, BARDA, or congressional staff request records on what was known about primate lung damage before human testing proceeded.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
Tickers
- JNJ-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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