Possible scenario
Israeli Managed Response
30% Chance
Israeli institutions try to contain the issue through targeted prosecutions, internal reviews, and limited procedural changes. This is plausible because Israel already charged soldiers in February 2025 while resisting broader claims of systematic abuse.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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