Possible scenario
Reliability Problems Return
18% Chance
The additional capacity fails to prevent further reliability problems, suggesting the issue is not only raw compute shortage but also orchestration, routing, or model-serving instability. This would deepen customer concern after the September 30 outage and the GPT-6 Sol replacement.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.0%
- GOOG+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.