Possible scenario
Interceptions Limit Damage
40% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that U.S. and UAE air defenses intercept most Iranian missiles and drones, limiting physical damage to military perimeters, ports, or power links. Iran demonstrates reach against U.S.-linked assets and AI infrastructure without triggering a full regional rupture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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