Possible scenario
AI Buildout Disrupted
25% Chance
Iran succeeds in making U.S.-linked AI infrastructure in the UAE a front-line strategic target. Even if the damage is not catastrophic, insurers, contractors, and U.S. export-control officials reassess the viability of concentrating advanced compute capacity in the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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