Possible scenario
Valuation Pause Emerges
25% Chance
After a sharp record-setting move, investors may take profits in the most crowded AI trades. The pullback is likely to be orderly unless it coincides with weak earnings guidance or a rates shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Business Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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