Possible scenario
Exchange Insurers Hit
24% Chance
CMS determines that improper premium tax credits flowed through some marketplace plans and begins recoupment or risk-adjustment revisions. Carriers with high Affordable Care Act exchange exposure face pressure on membership quality, revenue recognition, and 2027 pricing assumptions.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -1.0%
- Finance -0.2%
Tickers
- OSCR-6.3%
- CNC-4.3%
- MOH-3.1%
- ELV-1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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