Possible scenario
Ukraine Absorbs Strike
40% Chance
Ukraine reroutes military communications and data workloads through hardened, distributed systems, limiting operational damage from the Kyiv data-center strikes. The Black Sea ship attacks cause tactical losses but do not close the Odesa export corridor.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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