Possible scenario
Escalatory Retaliation Cycle
20% Chance
Kyiv responds with drone and missile attacks against Russian Black Sea Fleet assets, while Moscow continues to hit Ukrainian military data and communications infrastructure. The fighting remains below direct NATO involvement but increases near-term geopolitical risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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