Possible scenario
Contained Shadow Conflict
30% Chance
The UAE and Iran continue covert, deniable, or limited military actions without openly accepting responsibility for new strikes. This fits the recent pattern of drone reports, warnings, and secret attacks while allowing both governments to avoid a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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