Possible scenario
Dovish Rates Reversal
20% Chance
A softer US data point or dovish Federal Reserve commentary reverses part of the yield-driven selloff in gold. Lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar support bullion, while rate-sensitive equities also improve.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.0%
- Technology +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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