Possible scenario
Prolonged Attrition Blockade
20% Chance
Iran continues a gray-zone campaign against tankers without directly engaging U.S. or Gulf state warships. This creates a grinding disruption: fewer owners accept Hormuz voyages, insurance costs rise, and global crude flows are reduced without a single decisive military trigger.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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