Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar, China, and possibly the UN push Iran toward a temporary halt in tanker attacks to prevent direct confrontation with the United States. This path is plausible because Iran has demonstrated leverage over the strait and may accept a pause if it extracts diplomatic or sanctions-related concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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