Possible scenario
Coalition Naval Escalation
45% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France, and regional partners expand naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz after the latest tanker strikes. This is the most likely path because the attacks are now frequent enough to threaten global oil flows, but Washington and Gulf states still have incentives to keep the response limited.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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