Possible scenario
Policy Relief Arrives
35% Chance
The most likely near-term response is a mix of emergency logistics measures, refinery run maximization, and targeted relief rather than a structural fix. Washington has limited ability to create new refining capacity quickly, but waivers and inventory releases can ease panic pricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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