Possible scenario
Export Crunch Persists
30% Chance
Russia's export ban, European import limits, and constrained refinery capacity keep the Atlantic Basin short of diesel. U.S. refiners benefit from stronger margins, but trucking, agriculture, construction, and retail supply chains face higher costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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