Possible scenario
SEC-CFTC friction
20% Chance
The SEC continues enforcement and litigation against tokens it views as securities, limiting the CFTC framework's ability to settle the jurisdictional divide. The market response depends on whether the agencies coordinate or publicly conflict.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Tickers
- CME+0.8%
- GLXY-0.6%
- MSTR-0.6%
- CRCL+0.6%
- HOOD-0.3%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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