Possible scenario
Orderly CFTC rollout
45% Chance
The CFTC finalizes a workable market-structure framework using exchange, intermediary, custody and anti-manipulation powers already in the Commodity Exchange Act. Major U.S. platforms adapt quickly, and the market treats the move as a partial substitute for failed congressional legislation.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- COIN+3.7%
- +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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