Possible scenario
Contained Insurgent Retaliation
26% Chance
Jihadist groups or armed local factions test the Algerian deployment with attacks on convoys and exposed energy logistics. The violence remains geographically limited, but it forces temporary operating pauses and higher security costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.0%
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- GLO-6.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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