Possible scenario
Regional Spread Response
20% Chance
The New York outbreak remains connected to a broader Northeast measles wave, with nearby states expanding vaccination clinics and school-entry enforcement. This becomes a regional public-health issue but not a nationwide economic shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Tickers
- MRK+1.5%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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