Possible scenario
Trilateral Talks Advance
38% Chance
Trump's call with Vladimir Putin produces enough procedural agreement to keep October trilateral diplomacy alive. Moscow avoids committing to final terms, but accepts that Volodymyr Zelensky can be present in some format, allowing markets to price a modestly higher chance of de-escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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