Possible scenario
Talks Stall on Preconditions
27% Chance
Putin uses the call to restate maximalist demands, including limits on Ukraine's military posture and recognition of Russian control over occupied territory. Trump keeps the process alive, but the trilateral format slips or becomes less substantive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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