Possible scenario
Tech Rivalry Intensifies
22% Chance
The crisis mechanism reduces accidental escalation risk but does not prevent sharper competition over AI compute, model access, and semiconductor equipment. Washington and Beijing continue to separate safety dialogue from industrial and military advantage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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