Possible scenario
Guardrails Become Durable
38% Chance
Washington and Beijing turn the new AI crisis mechanism into a practical channel for incident notification, red-team discussions, and military-to-military escalation control. This is the most likely path because it builds directly on the 2024 hotline reopening and the 2026 AI dialogue framework without requiring major concessions on export controls.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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