Possible scenario
Tax Still Passes
25% Chance
Despite the new polling weakness, Prop 40 could still pass if progressive groups, unions, and Democratic turnout operations consolidate support before Election Day. California's electorate has previously backed high-income tax measures when tied to popular spending programs.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.5%
- Business Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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