Possible scenario
Tax Measure Fails
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the loss of majority support hardens into a November defeat for the California billionaire tax. The large opposition campaign, voter sensitivity to tax increases, and Gavin Newsom's support for a competing measure all make passage harder.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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