Possible scenario
Maritime Threat Expands
15% Chance
Given the recent Houthi threat against Saudi ships, a drone shootdown could be folded into a broader campaign against Saudi-linked maritime traffic. This is less likely than contained fighting but carries the largest immediate market impact because of oil and shipping exposure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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