Possible scenario
Tactical Bid Fades
25% Chance
The record 20-year auction proves to be a one-off driven by cheapening before the sale and liability-matching demand from a narrow group of buyers. Investors refocus on fiscal supply, BOJ balance-sheet reduction and the record 30-year yield reached earlier in October.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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